NDP could win over 50 seats in Saturday's election

 

John Horgan is likely to lead the NDP to its biggest win ever in B.C. The party could win more than 50 seats in Saturday's election.

The NDP are likely to win a substantial majority government in Saturday’s election. It looks like the party could end up with more than 50 seats. This would be the most seats the party has ever held in the B.C. Legislature, and it is likely to win seats in areas where it has never or hardly ever won before. The final results won’t be in until two weeks after the election, due to more than 700,000 mail-in ballots which are a direct result of holding an election during a pandemic, but it is still quite likely that B.C. residents will find out on Saturday that there will be an NDP majority. Residents will still be waiting for results in close ridings, which will probably number about 15. In the Lower Mainland, the NDP’s second-best stronghold after Vancouver Island, the NDP is likely to win a number of seats the BC Liberals have held since at least 1991. These could include Langley and Surrey-Cloverdale (last held by an NDP MLA in 1963, when both were part of the two-member Delta riding) and one or more Richmond seats (last held by the NDP when Harold Steves won in 1972 as part of Dave Barrett’s historic first win for the NDP). The party could even win one of the three Abbotsford seats, which the NDP have never held. Most likely win for them there would be in Abbotsford-Mission, where incumbent BC Liberal Simon Gibson is facing a stiff challenge from Mission Mayor Pam Alexis. Should Alexis win, there will need to be a byelection for the mayor’s seat on council, which she only won in 2018. The Greens may hold on to the two Vancouver Island seats where incumbents are running again - Cowichan Valley (held by leader Sonia Furstenau) and Saanich North and the Islands (held by Adam Olsen). Cowichan Valley is historically a strong NDP seat, while Olsen’s seat comprises part of the riding held by longtime national Green leader Elizabeth May. The party is unlikely to win any other seats, however it will see good vote totals in many ridings. The pending collapse of the BC Liberals is likely to be one of the important resets in B.C. political history - as occurred in past elections in 1903, 1933, 1941, 1952, 1972 and 1991. The party has had a difficult campaign, and many of its internal and external difficulties are related to its 16 years in power from 2001-2017. The longtime party movers and shakers weren’t ready to do a reset after the party lost power to an NDP-Green partnership in 2017. That’s why Andrew Wilkinson won out as leader, over former Surrey mayor Dianne Watts. What the party wouldn’t do, the voters are likely to do. Many of them want to see the backs of BC Liberals, as they are still smarting over jobs cuts under Gordon Campbell, the HST fiasco, constant boosting of MSP premiums, raiding the BC Hydro and ICBC piggy banks, putting tolls on just one bridge (the Port Mann) in the Lower Mainland (TransLink was responsible for the Golden Ears Bridge tolls) while taking them off the Coquihalla Highway and ignoring ever-soaring housing prices and other rises in the costs of living. Bozo eruptions by BC Liberal candidates didn’t help the party’s fortunes. Laurie Throness was thrown out of the party last week, but he’s still on the ballot as the BC Liberal candidate in Chilliwack-Kent. He is actively running as an independent and has a good chance of winning, given that many people had already voted before he got the boot. Jane Thornthwaite in North Vancouver-Seymour is still an official BC Liberal candidate, but isn’t likely to win her seat after her foolish remarks at a roast for retiring MLA Ralph Sultan. Wilkinson’s handling of the whole affair, from the day of the roast until the remarks were publicized, was pitiful. He did not show any leadership. All these challenges meant that many members of the public weren’t interested in some of the innovative ideas they threw out, such as removing the PST for a year and reducing it to three per cent in the second year. Despite NDP claims, this would help stimulate the economy and it would benefit people with lower incomes. Here in Surrey, the BC Liberal idea of forcing the local government to hold a referendum on policing was a good one - but it is likely to fall victim to the poor BC Liberal campaign. We will be getting a Surrey Police force and it is going to cost us a bundle in taxes. However, Doug McCallum’s tenure as mayor is likely to end in the next municipal election in 2022. The NDP was not immune from bozo eruptions. Star candidate Nathan Cullen (a longtime MP) made very distressing comments about a BC Liberal candidate in the riding of North Coast - a man who is a member of the Haida First Nation. He also mocked the man’s nickname (not a Haida traditional name.) Whether this will affect Cullen’s fortunes in the huge, lightly-populated Stikine riding he is running in probably won’t be known until the absentee ballots are counted in two weeks. He is fortunate that Horgan basically ignored his remarks, and that the issue only came up last weekend. If he wins, he does not deserve to be placed in cabinet until he goes through a cooling-off period. Wilkinson is not the greatest campaigner - he certainly isn’t as relaxed and sure of himself as Horgan is. Bragging about being both a doctor and a lawyer is not a vote-getter. If the results are as bad as seems likely, Wilkinson will probably resign soon. He may hold his seat (which could be the only Vancouver seat the party wins) or he may just leave entirely. The BC Liberals need fresh blood at the top - someone who was not part of their 16 years in government. They also need much more fresh blood when it comes to candidates. MLAs first elected in the 1990s, such as Mike de Jong in Abbotsford West, are far too long in the tooth to still be in the B.C. Legislature. The role of the BC Conservatives deserves a small mention. Most of the party’s candidates are running in ridings where they act as spoilers, more likely to put the NDP in the winner’s circle. Given that the Conservatives are supposedly more to the right than the BC Liberals, this makes no sense. The only logic is that the Conservatives are filled with people who are so mad at the BC Liberals they will do anything to destroy them. This is another indication that this election will serve as an important reset of B.C. politics. Horgan has run a solid government. Some of that is due to the partnership with the Greens, who on occasion curbed some NDP impulses and in general were good contributors to the governing process. He also paid attention to the deficit in pre-pandemic times, and is more likely to pay attention to economic issues and how to dig B.C. out of its fiscal hole than Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who seems completely indifferent to both the economy and soaring debt. He was helped in fiscal matters by Finance Minister and Deputy Premier Carole James, who unfortunately is not running again. She was a former NDP leader and needs to be remembered as the leader who brought the party back from its disastrous two-seat showing in 2001. She has been a good finance minister and deputy premier, and leaves office with a sterling reputation. The government’s response to the pandemic has been measured and reasonable - much better than the response in Alberta, Ontario, Quebec and federally. While much of the credit for that goes to Dr. Bonnie Henry, Horgan and Health Minister Adrian Dix have had the very good sense to let her be the primary communicator on COVID-19. While some people are angry over her restrictions and suggestions, most people have heeded her words. That has helped B.C. to keep COVID-19 numbers reasonably low, although they are on the rise at the present. The reopening of schools has gone reasonably well, although students, teachers and other staff are facing significant risks. This will worsen as the flu and cold season arrive. An NDP majority government needs to be sure to listen to people who didn’t vote NDP, and to MLAs from other parties. There are plenty of good ideas out there. No party has a monopoly on them. Horgan has said he doesn’t want a government that is run from the premier’s office. Seeing as he has power-hungry former Vancouver councillor Geoff Meggs entrenched there, that could be a tall challenge with a majority. The next election probably won’t come until 2024. Hopefully, there will once again be a fixed election date. Elections which are held at the whim of the sitting premier are patently unfair to other parties, as this election has shown. Almost no one wanted this election, with a pandemic underway. The Green Party had just elected a new leader the week before the election was called, and the BC Liberals were unprepared. The candidate selection process was short-circuited, and only the NDP was truly ready for this campaign. In effect, the other two parties had one arm tied behind their backs while Horgan strode all over the province and stomped all over them continuously. If this leads to some reckless NDP policy decisions, voters will remember when the next election comes around. Congratulations in advance to all the winners, and thanks to all who ran. You all played important parts in the democratic process.     ReplyForward