NDP has a majority government, but some seats far too close to call

Voting day is over, and the NDP almost certainly has a majority government. However, the final count may not be 55 seats for them, 29 for the Liberals and three for the Greens, as it was on election night.

At least 525,000 mail-in ballots have yet to be counted, according to elections BC. The number varies from riding to riding. But in most Lower Mainland ridings, the number seems to be in the 10,000 range.

The calls by multiple media outlets on Saturday night of an NDP majority government angered many voters who used the mail option. The reality is this: the margins of victory in most ridings aren't likely to change substantially, and thus far that means the NDP have a majority. But in 10 ridings or so, there is a chance of a shift.


Members of the media, like most B.C. residents, have no idea how the mail-in ballots will be distributed among candidates. Any "calls" are a gamble.


In at least four ridings, it is very possible for the election night leader in vote counts to end up losing. All four have margins of less than 200 votes between the first two candidates.


Three of the four are in the Lower Mainland.

They are: Abbotsford-Mission, where Liberal incumbent Simon Gibson is ahead of NDP candidate (and Mission mayor) Pam Alexis by 188 votes; Chilliwack-Kent, where Kelli Paddon of the NDP is ahead of former BC Liberal and current independent candidate Laurie Throness by 195 votes and Richmond South Centre where Henry Yao of the NDP is ahead of Richmond councillor and BC Liberal candidate Alexa Loo by 124 votes. They are the only two candidates in that riding.


The fourth riding is Vernon-Monashee, where BC Liberal incumbent Eric Foster is ahead of NDP challenger Harwinder Sidhu by 180 votes.


It appears, from numbers I have seen thus far, that there were fewer mail-in votes requested in many Interior ridings, but there will certainly be more than 200 in Vernon-Monashee. The number is probably in the thousands.


We will not know the results from the mail-in ballots for at least the next 12 days, and probably it will be longer than that.


Meanwhile, Premier John Horgan can keep doing what he promised to do last night- to concentrate on the COVID-19 epidemic. The number of cases in B.C. is on a worrying upward trend, and that is what is on most peoples’ minds right now.

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