Public stifles a yawn as B.C. election campaign begins

Photos (top to bottom) - BC Liberal leader Christy Clark, NDP leader John Horgan, Green leader Andrew Weaver

The B.C. election campaign officially starts tomorrow.

With fixed election dates being known four years in advance, the unofficial campaign is much longer than the official one. The three parties with chances to elect MLAs have been campaigning in various fashions all this year. Much of the campaigning was done during the spring legislative session, particularly with the budget and the reaction to it. It has also involved advertising from the government, the political parties and numerous special interest groups.

The interest in the campaign shown by the public, up until now, has been very muted. Many people are unaware there is an election coming. When informed about the May 9 election (I have witnessed this personally), the response is “when is the next one?” and “I’m too busy to pay attention, get on the voters’ list or do anything else.”

As Martyn Brown points out in a lengthy anti-BC Liberal article in the Georgia Straight, turnout in the last election, which was close and ended up much differently from what polls were suggesting would happen, was just 57 per cent. In the 1983 election, a very hard-fought two-way battle between Social Credit and the NDP (there were no third parties to speak of in that campaign), the turnout was just under 71 per cent.

There are a couple of other reasons, beyond a general decline in voter participation, for diminished interest. One is that Donald Trump is receiving the vast majority of overall media coverage, both conventional and social. As one candidate told me, “(this coverage) is sucking up most of the oxygen.” Agreed.

The second is that the traditional B.C. media is much-diminished of what it was, even four years ago. The Vancouver Sun and The Province, the two biggest print media outlets, have cut their staffing levels dramatically. They no longer have separate newsrooms. They are incapable of providing the level of coverage that they provided in previous elections.

The Toronto-based Globe and Mail has actually been providing significant in-depth coverage of several B.C. political topics in the past few years, notably stories related to the spiralling housing market and the cash-for-access fundraising operations of the BC Liberals and the NDP. By May 9, it will likely provide as much or more coverage as the B.C.-based daily papers.

CBC, thanks to the largesse of the federal Liberal government, has more reporters than ever and is likely to provide a decent amount of coverage. CBC-TV newscasts have poor ratings, but CBC Radio does have a big audience and the three Lower Mainland radio public affairs shows (The Early Edition, BC Almanac and The Afternoon Show) are all top-rated shows. CBC Radio also has local shows in other parts of B.C., such as Victoria and Kelowna, and is the sometimes the only radio station listeners in more remote communities can actually get over the air.

There have also been cutbacks and a number of outright closures of community newspapers, such as my former employer the Surrey Leader, and of dailies such as the Kamloops News. Radio stations have cut staffing over the past decade, and TV stations have also done so. Generally speaking, their staffing levels aren’t dramatically lower than four years ago, but there is more pressure on reporters.

With electronic media, diminished interest means diminished coverage. If TV news directors know that just over half of their viewers are bothering to vote, they will devote more resources to other stories. The pressure on them to deliver audiences keeps growing.

Bloggers have filled some of the gap left by the shrinking “old media.” Some, like Bob Mackin, routinely break stories of significance. Others, such as Laila Yuile, are very well-informed on many issues and have significant reach.

The Tyee, an online news outlet, is B.C.-based and oriented and publishes many good, well-researched stories. All are told from a left of centre viewpoint.

There is plenty of information available. But those who are interested will have to search harder to find it. The trouble is, more than half of the potential voters will not do so.

Parties will have to significantly step up campaigning efforts and make enormous efforts to identify people who actually vote. They will then need to touch base with them close to (or on) voting day to be sure they actually follow through and go to the polls.

At this juncture, my sense is that the campaign will be hard-fought and the final result will be close. There will be plenty of negative advertising, which will depress voter turnout even more.

The BC Liberals have been in power for 16 years under two premiers, and have much they are responsible for. That gives opposition parties and critics plenty of ammunition. However, they are well-financed and have shown in the past, particularly in 2013, that they are very good at getting their supporters to the polls when it counts.

The NDP are much more ready for a battle than they were in 2013, when their campaign team, led by federal strategist Brian Topp, did an abysmal job. They expected to win, and they coasted to a dramatic and unpredicted loss. They are ahead in the polls, but not by large margins, and very much have to identify uncommitted voters and ensure that they get to the polls.

The Green Party is much better organized than ever. It is polling strongly in some Vancouver Island ridings. On the Lower Mainland, its only role will be as a spoiler. There is a chance there may be two or three Green MLAs after the votes are counted, but all will come from the island.

The BC Conservatives are irrelevant. They have no leader and will only collect minimal votes in the few ridings they are contesting. If they had another name, they'd get even fewer votes. Several independents will likely only act as` spoilers, but they could affect final outcomes in some important races.

The election will be won or lost in Surrey, the Tri-City area (Coquitlam, Port Moody and Port Coquitlam) and Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows. The NDP have to win a number of seats that they lost by small margins in those areas in 2013 to form government. The BC Liberals have to hold onto the seats they won that year in order to govern again.