Winning re-election as a Liberal MP in Surrey and Delta in 2019 won't be easy
Two years ago this month, the federal Liberals cruised to
victory after a long and tiring election campaign – the longest in decades.
They went from third place in the federal House of Commons
to first, winning 184 seats after winning just 34 in 2011. One of the keys to
the party winning a majority government was its very strong showing in B.C, a
showing that surprised many observers.
The Liberals won four of the five seats in Surrey, as well
as the Delta seat. They won seats in Mission and Kelowna, Maple Ridge and
Whistler – places where there had not been Liberal MPs since the 1950s.
Party leader Justin Trudeau was a big reason. He contrasted
very favourably with incumbent prime minister Stephen Harper and NDP leader
Thomas Mulcair. He brought a second round of Trudeaumania to the often-staid
world of federal politics, and connected very well with younger people.
The first round of Trudeaumania took place in 1968, shortly after his father Pierre Elliott Trudeau was selected Liberal party leader and prime minister
For much of the past two years, the party has stayed high in
the polls. Part of this is continued enthusiasm for Justin Trudeau, and continued
economic prosperity in Canada. Part has been due to the lack of opposition figures
– the Conservatives were leaderless until May, and the NDP just selected a new
leader on Oct. 1.
However, many of the B.C. MPs who were elected as a result
of round two of Trudeaumania must be concerned about whether they can hold
their seats – particularly in areas like Surrey which are not traditional
Liberal strongholds. History is a guide for them.
In 1968, when Justin’s father Pierre won his first election
and brought the Liberals the majority government they had been trying to
achieve for five years, the party won 16 seats in B.C. In the next election in
1972, they won just four. Overall in 1972, the party lost 46 seats across the country
and barely held on to power. They only won two more seats than the Progressive
Conservatives, and were propped up by the NDP for almost two years.
In 2015, the Liberals boosted their seat total to a new
record in B.C. They won 17 seats. However, since that time they have had a
number of challenges, particularly in B.C. The federal approval of the Kinder
Morgan pipeline has been deeply unpopular in many parts of B.C., particularly
urban areas. It is notable that when Justin Trudeau did a series of town hall
meetings in most parts of the country almost a year ago, he did not do any in B.C.
The recent move to more heavily tax small businesses, and
the labelling of many business people as “tax cheats,” has caused Surrey MPs’
office phones to ring off the hook. They have been flooded with emails and
other messages, and held a number of meetings with constituents on this topic. Changes
were announced last week on this topic. Whether it will mollify them remains to be
seen. One thing is certain - the Liberal brand has been badly damaged by the clumsy way this file has been handled.
Perhaps the most damaging thing for Surrey Liberal MPs has
been the election of Jagmeet Singh to the leadership of the NDP. He has impressed
many people across the country with his stylish dress, the story of his rise
from challenging circumstances and his youth.
Singh is a proud Sikh. In Surrey, many Sikhs were drawn to
the Liberals in the last election. This was particularly noticeable in ridings
which had elected NDP MPs in the past. It is a pretty safe observation that
many of those who voted Liberal in 2015 will be more inclined to vote for the
NDP under the leadership of Singh.
In 2011, two NDP MPs were elected in Surrey, and two Conservatives. Delta voters also elected a Conservative MP.
Surrey and Delta have not been Liberal strongholds for many years. In
Surrey, federal representation has been split between the Conservatives (and
their predecessors) and the NDP since the 1950s. Delta has been a Conservative
stronghold.
A good test of how much things have changed will come when a byelection is held in South Surrey-White Rock, where Conservative MP Dianne
Watts has resigned to seek the BC Liberal leadership. Watts was a very popular
mayor, but didn’t win her seat by a huge margin – a sign of just how strong the
Liberals were in 2015.
If the Liberals do well in that byelection, their other
seats in Surrey may be relatively safe. If they go back to their usual levels
of support, the five Liberal MPs from this area may have a tough time winning
their seats in 2019.
Two years is a long time, and the Liberals may be able to regain some of the strength they showed in 2015. They will have the advantage of incumbency. In Canada, it seems that governments usually set themselves up for defeat, rather than be defeated by other parties. The Liberal and Justin Trudeau brands still have plenty of shine.
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