South Surrey-White Rock byelection a fascinating contest

Photo by Lance Peverley, Peace Arch News
As moderator of Tuesday's all-candidates forum in the South Surrey-White Rock riding, I was placed in the midst of the standing room-only audience to ask questions to the candidates on behalf of the organizers and citizens who emailed their questions to the South Surrey and White Rock Chamber of Commerce. 

The federal byelection in South Surrey-White Rock takes place on Monday, Dec. 11.

The byelection has captured considerably more interest than usual, largely because Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has visited the area twice to campaign with Liberal candidate Gordon Hogg. This is unprecedented for Surrey and White Rock. Never has a sitting prime minister spent that much time and energy campaigning for a single candidate, and no party leader has ever spent time in South Surrey or White Rock during an election.

Conservative leader Andrew Scheer has also visited the area twice, and Green Party leader Elizabeth May is scheduled to visit on Saturday.

When most of Surrey was in one federal riding, from 1968 to 1979, it was rare for a federal party leader to visit here. Trudeau’s father Pierre did make a famous appearance at Fort Langley in the 1968 “Trudeaumania” campaign, campaigning for Lower Mainland candidates, including Bill Vander Zalm in Surrey-White Rock. It partially worked – the Liberals won Fraser Valley East in that election, but were shut out in Fraser Valley West and Surrey-White Rock.

As the city grew and more ridings were added, it became more likely that a federal leader would visit here during a general election campaign. In 1988, when there were three ridings in Surrey (one of them included White Rock and part of Langley Township), Liberal leader John Turner came to Surrey as part of his passionate campaign against the Canada-U.S. free trade agreement. That may have been the last federal campaign which was so focused on a single issue.

In more recent campaigns, Surrey has become a regular stop for federal leaders because of the growing number of ridings. In the most recent campaign in 2015, incumbent prime minister Stephen Harper, Trudeau and NDP leader Thomas Mulcair all visited Surrey. There are now six ridings in the Surrey, White Rock and North Delta area. One includes all of Delta; another includes Langley City.

The 2015 visits were most fruitful for Trudeau, as four of the five Surrey ridings and neighbouring Delta all went to the Liberals. This was a seismic shift, given that since 1953, the only federal Liberal ever elected in Surrey was Sukh Dhaliwal, in 2006 and 2008. Delta voters did elect a Liberal in the Trudeaumania year of 1968, Tom Goode Jr., in what was then called the Burnaby-Richmond riding. Its boundaries had been adjusted in 1966 to include Delta. His father, Tom Goode Sr., had been the Liberal MP for Burnaby-Richmond from 1949 to 1957.

Dhaliwal’s two wins came after he finished a very close second to Conservative Gurmant Grewal in 2004, losing by 520 votes. In 2006, he won the seat, but not by much. NDP candidate Nancy Clegg was 1,000 votes behind him and Conservative Phil Eidsvik trailed her by 590.

In 2008, Dhaliwal’s win was more decisive, by about 2,500 votes over Conservative Sandeep Pandher, but again it was a fairly tight three-way race. Dhaliwal lost his seat in 2011 to NDP candidate Jinny Sims.

The Liberals could make Surrey 100 per cent theirs if Hogg wins the byelection. He certainly has a good shot at doing so – more than 1,400 people registered to hear Trudeau speak at Semiahmoo Secondary on Saturday. Hogg also has the added benefit of being well-known as a former White Rock councillor and mayor, and BC Liberal MLA for 20 years.

The Conservatives have fielded former Delta-Richmond East MP Kerry-Lynne Findlay as their candidate. While she was in the Harper cabinet, she is not nearly as well-known in Surrey and White Rock as Hogg is.  Scheer, who is younger than Trudeau, has been in the twice to campaign on her behalf. He is still an unknown quantity to the Canadian public at this point in time.

South Surrey-White Rock voters have historically voted conservative – electing Progressive Conservative, Reform, Canadian Alliance and Conservative MPs since the riding was first formed (with somewhat different boundaries) in 1988. This byelection could see a significant shift, but the results will likely be fairly close, with the Liberals and Conservatives the only real contenders.

It is important to remember that byelections traditionally have significantly smaller voter turnouts than general elections. This one is occurring in the busy pre-Christmas season, which will also depress turnout.

Getting the vote out will be crucial. The party that manages to do so most successfully will be the one that wins.

I am quite sure the turnout will be smaller than in the 2015 general election, but there is definitely lots of interest. I was privileged to moderate an all-candidates' meeting on Tuesday in White Rock, and was blown away by the turnout. It was standing room-only at the White Rock Community Centre, and all seven candidates were in attendance.

The forum was organized by the South Surrey and White Rock Chamber of Commerce, and co-sponsored by Fraser Valley Real Estate Board and CARP chapter 11, Surrey-White Rock. It was very well-organized.

I was impressed by the calibre of all seven candidates and their knowledge of almost all the issues raised through the 14 questions that were asked. There were no personal attacks on fellow candidates, although the governing Liberals and Trudeau did come in for a few shots, mainly from the Conservative and NDP candidates.

Hogg took the high road entirely - which is in keeping with his personality and political style. He and Conservative Kerry-Lynne Findlay were carefully watching each other as the questions were asked, trying to get the last word in. Each succeeded on several occasions.

Findlay was quite successful in contrasting the Liberal promises of 2015 with the actions of the previous Stephen Harper government. The fact that she was present and fully engaged in a debate on issues was a vast improvement on 2015, when Conservative candidate Dianne Watts skipped most debates, as did Conservative candidates in many ridings across Canada. In my opinion, this action, which appeared to be co-ordinated by the Conservative national campaign, was an affront to democracy.

I'm convinced it was one reason that the Conservatives lost many seats they had counted on winning. Stephen Harper could avoid the media and critics while he was prime minister, but the local Conservative candidates took a beating for doing so during the campaign.

Watts' actions certainly were a factor in reducing the margin she won the seat by. I was doubly surprised that she stayed away from meetings, given her considerable popularity as mayor of Surrey for nine years and her innate ability to engage with people.

The following statistics support my contention. In 2011, Conservative Russ Hiebert took 54.5 per cent of the vote, with the second-place NDP candidate Susan Keeping getting 20 per cent. Liberal Hardy Staub was third with 16.67 per cent.

Watts, in 2015, captured 44 per cent of the vote while Liberal Judy Higginbotham gained 41.5 per cent of the vote. She ended up just 1,439 votes behind Watts. The NDP share of the vote dropped to 10.4 per cent for candidate Pixie Hobby.

At the meeting on Tuesday, Green candidate Larry Colero, making his third attempt at winning the seat, and NDP candidate Jonathan Silveira also performed quite strongly and were frequently applauded. Christian Heritage Party leader Rod Taylor, who lives in Telkwa (near Smithers) also received applause for some  responses, as well as a number of boos for others.

The other two candidates are Michael Huenefeld of the Progressive Canadian Party and Donald Wilson of the Libertarian Party. Both are articulate and made some good points at the meeting.

Voters certainly have a full range of viewpoints to choose from, and a wide variety of parties. If they haven't yet voted in the advance poll, Monday will be their chance to do so.

For those who would like to hear more about this very interesting byelection, I will be interviewed by Rick Cluff on CBC Radio's Early Edition on Friday morning. The interview will take place at 7:40 a.m.