NDP invigorated with Nanaimo byelection results
 Premier John Horgan celebrates with new Nanaimo MLA Sheila Malcolmson, who won the Wednesday byelection with almost 50 percent of the vote.
There are a few significant lessons to be pondered from the results of Wednesday’s byelection in Nanaimo.
First and foremost - the NDP government is here to stay, likely for at least another year. Winning NDP candidate Sheila Malcolmson won almost 50 per cent of the vote, with final figures from the counting on Wednesday giving her 10,538 votes. Liberal candidate Tony Harris has 40.5 per cent of the vote, with 8,665.
The most surprising and significant vote totals were posted by Michele Ney of the Green Party. She comes from a well-known political family, and the Green Party had close to 20 per cent of the vote in 2017. Her vote percentage was just over seven per cent, and she gained just 1,579 votes.
It is obvious that most of the Green vote from 2017 migrated to the NDP and Liberals. Many Green voters from 2017 still felt that the NDP government was worth supporting, and switched over to Malcolmson to ensure that the government would stand. A smaller number switched to the Liberals, who ran a strong candidate who focused on local issues.
The Green voters in Nanaimo who switched are likely the beginning of a wave that will almost certainly sweep two of the three Green MLAs out of office when the next election rolls around. Party leader Andrew Weaver will likely hold his seat. The defeat of proportional representation in the referendum (which was no more popular in Nanaimo than in most other parts of the province) has given voters a clear message - vote for the major parties, vote strategically if you must, and stick with the system that you know and understand.
The Green Party will have to face up to some tough reckoning. Is it worth their while propping up the NDP government, where the Greens get no credit for any legislation? Weaver has in recent weeks talked about how hard it was to get the NDP government to do even minor tinkering on its much-derided speculation tax. With no proportional representation, the Greens have very little to gain from supporting the NDP. At present, they are in agreement on most issues - but how long will that last?
The NDP government will do no such soul-searching. It will be full steam ahead. Premier John Horgan will likely govern until the Greens pull the plug, or until he deems it a good time to go to the polls to get a majority government. Either way, it will almost certainly be before September, 2021 - the next scheduled election date.
The Liberals received a mixed mssage from voters. On the one hand, their vote total and percentage went up, thanks to a good candidate and a solid campaign. If they can do this well in Nanaimo, and the Green vote continues to shrink, they can win back seats (such as Courtenay-Comox) that they lost by narrow margins in 2017. That gives the party a good shot at winning the next election.
On the other hand, the current crop of Liberal MLAs has a lot of holdovers from the early days of the Gordon Campbell government, almost two decades ago. The party needs to renew itself with a large crop of younger candidates, like Harris, to appeal to a broader portion of the population.
In the 2017 general election, 27,525 people voted in Nanaimo. Last night, 21,410 votes were counted. A number of absentee ballots remain to be counted, so the final vote total will probably be about 22,000.
The 2017 results saw longtime NDP MLA Leonard Krog get 12,746 votes (46.5 per cent). Liberal Paris Gaudet got 8,911 (32.5 per cent), while Green candidate Kathleen Harris got 5,454 (just under 20 per cent).
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