We don't know what government we are going to get in B.C.

“I don’t know what government we got. I don’t know what government we did not get. I don’t know what government we are going to get.” - Barry Mather, Vancouver Sun, June 13, 1952

The comments from Sun columnist Mather (later an NDP MP for New Westminster, and later Surrey) reflect exactly what happened on Saturday, Oct. 19. B.C. residents cast over two million votes in the election, but 12 races where the margin of victory is less than 500 votes mean that no one knows who will win.

On election day, the governing NDP led or won 46 seats, the Conservatives led or won 45, and the Green Party had elected two.

Mather was writing about the pivotal election of 1952, when the coalition government that had ruled B.C. for 11 years broke apart. The Liberals and Conservatives each went their own way, and Social Credit under W.A.C. Bennett won 19 seats in a minority government, which featured the transferable ballot. The party had never elected an MLA prior to that election. Bennett went on to become B.C.’s longest-serving premier, for 20 years.

In this election, the Conservatives elected MLAs for the first time in 46 years. The last Conservative elected was Vic Stephens, elected in a 1978 byelection in Oak Bay. My journalism bailiwick over that same 46-year period has been Surrey, Delta and the Fraser Valley, and it appears that these areas of the province did the most to deprive David Eby’s government of a majority (at least for the present).

Of the 11 seats in Hope, Chilliwack, Abbotsford, Agassiz, Mission, Langley, Maple Ridge and Pitt Meadows, the NDP are ahead in only one - Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows. One other seat, Maple Ridge East has Conservative Lawrence Mok 324 votes ahead of incumbent NDP MLA Bob D’Eith, in the preliminary count. In 2020, the NDP won six Fraser Valley seats.

In Surrey, redistribution gave the city (and White Rock) a total of 10 seats, up one. As of election night, the NDP appeared to have won just two seats- Surrey-Newton and Surrey-Fleetwood. The party was ahead in one more - Surrey-City Centre, by just 96 votes. The Conservatives have won Surrey-White Rock, Surrey South and Surrey North, where Education Minister Rachna Singh was defeated.

In addition to Surrey-City Centre, there are four other close ridings. Elenore Sturko in Surrey-Cloverdale, one of the highest-profile Conservative candidates and an incumbent MLA, is probably in the strongest position of the five. She is currently 672 votes ahead of incumbent Mike Starchuk of the NDP. In neighbouring Surrey-Serpentine River, former Surrey mayor Linda Hepner of the Conservatives has a 516-vote lead over NDP candidate Baltej Singh Dillon, the first Sikh to wear a turban in the RCMP.

In Surrey-Guildford, incumbent NDP MLA Garry Begg is 102 votes behind Conservative Honveer Singh Randhawa, and in Surrey-Panorama incumbent NDP MLA Jinny Sims is 351 votes behind Conservative Bryan Tepper.

Both Delta seats have been decided. Housing Minister Ravi Kahlon won Delta North fairly comfortably, and Conservative candidate and former BC United MLA Ian Paton has easily held his Delta South seat.

Provincially, the NDP did very well in Vancouver, North Vancouver, Burnaby, the Tri-Cities of Coquitlam, Port Coquitlam and Port Moody, the West Kootenays and most of Vancouver Island. All of these areas (except North Vancouver and portions of the Tri-Cities) have been party strongholds for decades.

Other than the two West Kootenay seats, the party won just two other Interior seats - North Coast (Prince Rupert and Haida Gwaii) and Vernon-Lumby, where incumbent NDP MLA Harwinder Sandhu has a 384-vote lead over Conservative Dennis Giesbrecht. A strong independent showing with 4,196 votes for Kevin Acton, mayor of Lumby and former BC United candidate, was a major factor in that race, which is one of the 10 close races. In most Interior ridings, the NDP did poorly. A notable loss was Lands Minister Nathan Cullen in Bulkley Valley-Stikine, which covers almost one-quarter of B.C. The state of the forest industry and the winding down of many major construction projects were major factors.

The Conservatives dominated in the Interior, and might win up to three seats on Vancouver Island. The party also took three of the four Richmond ridings. In Vancouver, the party won only one seat.

The Green Party won two seats. It held Saanich North and the Islands, where Rob Botterell took over from popular Green MLA Adam Olsen. This riding is likely the safest Green seat in B.C., both provincially and federally. The party also won its first seat ever on the mainland, winning West Vancouver-Sea to Sky, where Jeremy Valeriote won by 666 votes over Yuri Fulmer of the Conservatives. Party leader Sonya Furstenau lost in Victoria-Beacon Hill, after moving over from her Cowichan Valley riding.

The Greens will likely be in a very strong negotiating position, and NDP leader David Eby has already been making overtures to Furstenau, who remains party leader for now. The Greens may be wary of entering any formal arrangement with the NDP, which abruptly ripped up a similar agreement in 2020 after three years of minority government.

Where are the other close ridings of the 12 mentioned above? I’ve mentioned Surrey-City Centre, Surrey-Guildford, Surrey-Panorama, Maple Ridge East and Vernon-Lumby. Also close are two Vancouver Island races: Juan de Fuca-Malahat (part of which is former premier John Horgan’s former turf). That is the tightest race in the province. NDP candidate Dana Lejeunesse is 23 votes ahead of Conservative Marina Sapoznikhov. Green candidate David Evans ran a strong third, with 5,345 votes thus far.

In Courtenay-Comox, where the final outcome led to the NDP minority government in 2017, the winner of that race then, Ronna-Rae Leonard, is currently 232 votes behind Conservative Brennan Day.

The other close races are:

- Coquitlam-Burke Mountain, where former NDP MLA Jodie Wickens is 268 votes ahead of Stephen Frolek of the Conservatives;

- Kelowna Centre, where Kristina Loewen of the Conservatives is 146 votes ahead of NDP Loyal Wooldridge. Independent Michael Humer, a former BC United candidate, has 2,526 votes;

- Penticton-Summerland,where Amelia Boutlbee has 11,425 votes, 470 votes ahead of Tina Lee of the NDP;

- Richmond-Steveston, where incumbent NDP MLA Kelly Greene is 435 votes ahead of Conservative Michelle Mollineaux; and

-Vancouver-Langara, where Sunita Dhir of the NDP, with 8,111 votes, is 288 votes ahead of Conservative Bryan Breguet, who has 7,823.

The final results will not be released by Elections BC until Oct. 28, and it is possible there may be judicial recounts after that. The two ridings where margins are less than 100 votes will be very closely scrutinized by both parties and Elections BC.

Who will be the next premier? At this point in time, it could be either Eby or Conservative leader John Rustad, who has risen in two years from being kicked out of the BC Liberal caucus to leader of a very strong party. Kevin Falcon, who kicked him out of the BC Liberals, made the Conservatives’ strong finish possible by withdrawing his BC United Party from the race, just two months ago.