Election predictions for B.C. ridings - as of Oct. 14
Langley Township Councillor Kim Richter asked me on a Facebook post the following question, in a general discussion of the election polls last week.
"What is your take on the 6 new seats in B.C.? Are they all going to go the same way (ie. Conservatives). I have heard (Dianne) Watts is in trouble in Surrey. Is this true?"
Here's how I saw the B.C. results on election night shaping up, as of our Oct. 6 discussion.
"Can't see Dianne Watts losing. threehundredeight.com seat projections for B.C. seem off-base to me in a number of ridings. Conservatives could lose Fleetwood-Port Kells, will likely lose Van South and possibly at least one each of North Shore and Richmond ridings will go Liberal. New Vancouver-Granville riding seems a pretty even three-way split. Surrey-Newton will also be a close three-way race. The three Coquitlam/Maple Ridge area seats will be interesting. Fin Donnelly (NDP) likely to win in Port Moody-Coquitlam, while Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows will likely be close between Conservatives/NDP. The third Coquitlam riding (Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam) is said by threehundredeight.com to be Conservative, but it may be close too. There`s a strong NDP voter base in Poco and Coquitlam. Greens have a chance to win in Victoria over NDP, but it will be an uphill fight. With the three northern VI seats, two will likely go NDP, with Conservatives holding one. In the interior, likely to be little change although the new South Okanagan-West Kootenay riding could be interesting, as it combines a strong NDP area with a strong Conservative area. Overall, gains for NDP and Liberals (and possibly Greens) and some losses for Conservatives in B.C."
I share that perspective for those who are interested. Since that time, the Liberals continue to improve in the polls and it seems they may be a factor in several other Lower Mainland ridings, including several Surrey seats. I am highly suspicious of polls though, given the poor track record in many recent elections, including the 2013 provincial election which almost every pollster said would be an NDP majority.
I don't think the Liberals will win any of the seven seats on Vancouver Island. Two of their candidates have withdrawn but are still on the ballot.
Nor do I think they will win any seats in the interior. There are nine seats in total to represent the vast portion of B.C. outside the Lower Mainland and Vancouver Island.
In Vancouver, they will likely take four of the six seats. Exceptions are Vancouver East, a longtime CCF/NDP seat that candidate Jenny Kwan is likely to hold for the NDP, and Vancouver-Kingsway. They will also likely take the Burnaby-Seymour seat (partly Burnaby, partly North Vancouver), and possibly the other two North Shore seats, along with one or both Richmond seats. That would give them nine, if they won them all.
Outside that, their best shot is likely in Surrey-Newton, where Sukh Dhaliwal is seeking to win his seat back after losing to Jinny Sims of the NDP in 2011.
Here is my prediction of seat totals in B.C., as of today (Wednesday, Oct. 14): Conservative - 17; NDP -14; Liberal - 10; and Green - 1.
The standings in the 2011 election, when B.C. had 36 seats in the House of Commons (we now have 42) were: Conservative - 21; NDP - 12; Liberal - 2; and Green - 1.
Don't take any of these predictions to the bank. A lot can change between now and election day, Monday Oct. 19.
"What is your take on the 6 new seats in B.C.? Are they all going to go the same way (ie. Conservatives). I have heard (Dianne) Watts is in trouble in Surrey. Is this true?"
Here's how I saw the B.C. results on election night shaping up, as of our Oct. 6 discussion.
"Can't see Dianne Watts losing. threehundredeight.com seat projections for B.C. seem off-base to me in a number of ridings. Conservatives could lose Fleetwood-Port Kells, will likely lose Van South and possibly at least one each of North Shore and Richmond ridings will go Liberal. New Vancouver-Granville riding seems a pretty even three-way split. Surrey-Newton will also be a close three-way race. The three Coquitlam/Maple Ridge area seats will be interesting. Fin Donnelly (NDP) likely to win in Port Moody-Coquitlam, while Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows will likely be close between Conservatives/NDP. The third Coquitlam riding (Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam) is said by threehundredeight.com to be Conservative, but it may be close too. There`s a strong NDP voter base in Poco and Coquitlam. Greens have a chance to win in Victoria over NDP, but it will be an uphill fight. With the three northern VI seats, two will likely go NDP, with Conservatives holding one. In the interior, likely to be little change although the new South Okanagan-West Kootenay riding could be interesting, as it combines a strong NDP area with a strong Conservative area. Overall, gains for NDP and Liberals (and possibly Greens) and some losses for Conservatives in B.C."
I share that perspective for those who are interested. Since that time, the Liberals continue to improve in the polls and it seems they may be a factor in several other Lower Mainland ridings, including several Surrey seats. I am highly suspicious of polls though, given the poor track record in many recent elections, including the 2013 provincial election which almost every pollster said would be an NDP majority.
I don't think the Liberals will win any of the seven seats on Vancouver Island. Two of their candidates have withdrawn but are still on the ballot.
Nor do I think they will win any seats in the interior. There are nine seats in total to represent the vast portion of B.C. outside the Lower Mainland and Vancouver Island.
In Vancouver, they will likely take four of the six seats. Exceptions are Vancouver East, a longtime CCF/NDP seat that candidate Jenny Kwan is likely to hold for the NDP, and Vancouver-Kingsway. They will also likely take the Burnaby-Seymour seat (partly Burnaby, partly North Vancouver), and possibly the other two North Shore seats, along with one or both Richmond seats. That would give them nine, if they won them all.
Outside that, their best shot is likely in Surrey-Newton, where Sukh Dhaliwal is seeking to win his seat back after losing to Jinny Sims of the NDP in 2011.
Here is my prediction of seat totals in B.C., as of today (Wednesday, Oct. 14): Conservative - 17; NDP -14; Liberal - 10; and Green - 1.
The standings in the 2011 election, when B.C. had 36 seats in the House of Commons (we now have 42) were: Conservative - 21; NDP - 12; Liberal - 2; and Green - 1.
Don't take any of these predictions to the bank. A lot can change between now and election day, Monday Oct. 19.
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