Ambitious accord reshapes B.C. politics

NDP leader John Horgan is likely to be the next B.C. premier within a few weeks.


I've got a few thoughts about the state of B.C. politics, following today's announcements and accord-signing.
First, the NDP-Green accord is ambitious, but is mostly in line with what a majority of voters were looking for. It's safe to say that most wanted a stronger environmental commitment in the form of carbon tax increases and opposition to the Kinder Morgan pipeline twinning; a move towards a new electoral system, and correctly putting that option to the public for a final decision; and referral of the Site C project to the B.C. Utilities Commission.
The NDP had their way with removing bridge tolls - a big issue in Surrey, Langley and Maple Ridge. With their 41 seats, they also prevailed on issues like the minimum wage, which they say will rise eventually to $15 per hour. They also will cut MSP premiums in half at first, and look to removing them entirely.
The accord calls for the Greens to support the NDP minority for four and one-half years, until a provincial election in September, 2021. That is a real stretch, asking one party with three MLAs to back another much larger party with 41 MLAs, for that long. There will be personnel changes in the meantime, but most importantly there will be substantive differences on policy. If there isn't, why have a Green Party at all?
I think it is more likely that the support will last two to three years at the most.
The Greens wisely did not enter a coalition, which would really erode their distinctiveness. They also got party recognition, even though they have just three MLAs. That was a given.
Premier Christy Clark plans to hold onto her position for now, call the House into session in early June, and present a throne speech, which will likely be defeated. Before that takes place, a speaker will be elected by MLAs. If the speaker is a Liberal (Linda Reid, the longest consecutively-serving MLA, has been the speaker), that will take some pressure off the NDP and Greens, but MLAs will still have to be present at almost all times.
If the throne speech is defeated, as Clark acknowledges is likely, almost certainly that will lead to Lieutenant-Governor Judith Guichon calling on John Horgan to form a government, and he can show her has support of the House majority, with the signed accord.
Clark may be seen by some as stretching out her days in office, but she is carefully following precedent and that is important. It is also important that her government do nothing controversial with long-lasting implications while it is remains in this precarious, temporary and untenable position.
We should know what the NDP minority government looks like, in terms of cabinet positions and responsibilities, within a few weeks. The province can wait that long, but not much longer. There does need to be a government with a mandate in place soon.
The Greens used their leverage very well, but the biggest challenge to them over the long term will be proving that they are a relevant and distinct party from the NDP. This will be particularly true if proportional representation is turned down by voters in a referendum, which is to coincide with next November's municipal elections. That alone should boost voter turnout in those local contests.
One more point. There will be enormous pressure on MLAs from all three parties to switch party affiliations, probably for as long as this minority government lasts. Party leaders will have to keep all their MLAs, particularly those on the backbench, content and busy.