Race for U.S. president is the biggest show of 2016

Donald Trump

About eight months ago, I wrote a blog post on Donald Trump, wondering if his recently-launched campaign to gain the Republican Party's nomination for president would have staying power.
It most definitely has, as his wins in primary after primary have shown.
Most of the media commentary on his primary wins, in both Canada and the United States, has focused on his crudeness, his comments on Mexicans and Muslims, his attacks on those who hold him to account (Megyn Kelly of Fox News being the best example) and his unsuitability for presidential office. One of the best comments in that regard comes from Michael Gerson of the Washington Post, who is a former aide and speechwriter to President George W. Bush.

Clearly, Trump is resonating with many voters in the various primaries held thus far. Whether this is due to crudeness (which is doubtful) or policy (his immigration policies do resonate with many Americans) is impossible to accurately measure.
A look at history might provide some clarity.
I've long been interested in U.S. presidential races. The men (all presidents have been male thus far) who have been elected to the most powerful elected office in the world got there through a wide variety of approaches to campaigning, and presidential elections are one of the most reliable ways to measure how the U.S. has changed and developed since the American Revolution.
George Washington wasn't really that interested in becoming president, but he did not want the newly-independent U.S. to turn into a monarchy, so he took office as the first president and very wisely did not stay beyond two terms. In  doing so, he set an example that all but one of his successors adhered to. That two-term limit is now enshrined in the U.S. constitution.
After Washington, there were a succession of several pretty strong presidents, but in the years before Abraham Lincoln was elected in 1860, there were a series of very weak presidents. One of them, Zachary Taylor, was a Mexican War hero who had never even voted. Both he and William Henry Harrison died in office - which also created significant challenges.
The fundamental issue of that time was slavery, which was expanding in the south as a result of dramatic changes to agricultural practices and a complete disregard of African-Americans as people. This was abhorrent to many who lived in the north. A significant split was on the horizon. It occurred in the 1860 election, which Lincoln, the first Republican president, won as a result of a badly-split Democratic Party. He won no electoral votes in the south, and upon his election, southern states started to make plans to leave the union.
Lincoln had minimal national elected experience (he'd served one term in the House of Representatives many years earlier) but came to national attention as the result of a series of debates in 1858 with Stephen Douglas, who was seeking re-election as senator from Illinois, and was the Democratic candidate for president in 1860.
That election marked a monumental shift in U.S. party politics. It marked the ascendancy of the Republicans and the retreat of the Democrats, who for many years were confined to certain strongholds.
It also set in motion many other forces. It was the impetus for the Civil War. Lincoln was the first of four presidents to be assassinated - a terrible blow to U.S. residents, the political process and the image of the country.
The long ascendancy of the Republican Party also coincided with a massive industrialization of the U.S. This led to a number of abuses by capitalists and eventually led Republican President Teddy Roosevelt, who gained office as the result of the assassination of William McKinley in 1901, to mount a full-on "bust the trust" campaign to curb the power of Wall Street.
Roosevelt initially respected the two-term convention and did not run for a third term in 1908. But he decided to do so in 1912, mounting a third-party campaign against incumbent William Howard Taft, whom had had supported in 1908. His Progressive Party was better-known as the Bull Moose party, which aptly described Roosevelt's personality. He most definitely had some of the personality traits that Trump has.
This three-party contest and split vote led to the election of Democrat Woodrow Wilson, whose more international approach to the office marked a significant shift in U.S. politics which did not fully come to fruition until the Second World War, when Franklin Roosevelt, who had served in Wilson's administration, was president.
Democrat Franklin Roosevelt, the only president to be elected four times, first came to office in 1933 at the depths of the Depression. He greatly expanded government, and this helped the U.S. weather the worst of the storm. He was a strong internationalist and a master conniver, which allowed him to assist the Allies in the Second World War while at the same time remaining "neutral" and laying the groundwork for the U.S. entry into the war. That happened when Japan attacked Pearl Harbour on Dec. 7, 1941.
He died in office in 1945, shortly before the war ended. His successor Harry Truman was loyal to his policies, but also set his own unique tone and made a number of important and difficult decisions. He's the president who said "the buck stops here."
In 1948, he, like Lincoln, faced three opponents and was widely expected to lose. Instead, he triumphed as the result of one of the greatest campaigns ever mounted.

President Harry Truman triumphantly holds a copy of The Chicago Tribune which headlined his defeat at the hands of Republican Thomas Dewey in the 1948 election. The Tribune was terribly wrong - and Truman loved it.

The result of Franklin Roosevelt and Truman's presidencies, which together lasted 20 years, was to cement the Democrats in the dominant position in U.S. politics.
Democrat John F. Kennedy was elected in 1960 after Republican Dwight D. Eisenhower, a Second World War hero, had served eight years as president. Kennedy's assassination in 1963 set in motion many anxieties and instabilities which remain a significant factor in the U.S. today.
Since 1963, there have been the Vietnam War, the civil rights movement, women's liberation, the Black Panthers, race riots, campus protests, Watergate, hyper-inflation, massive social changes, a hollowing out of the U.S. manufacturing industry, the end of the Cold War, 9/11, the Iraq war and many other significant factors which have left many U.S. voters in an almost perpetual state of fear and uncertainty.
Ronald Reagan's eight years as Republican president from 1981-89 quelled some of the anxieties and was key in ending the Cold War. But since that time, the upheavals have continued and perhaps even intensified.
Many Republicans feel their country is not the same, and it isn't. Many Democrats applaud the social changes. Some Americans are quite happy for the U.S. role on the world stage to diminish, something that President Barack Obama seems to want.
The deep divide has been exacerbated by the shrill tone of much of the media, notably cable news channels and talk radio. The increasing involvement of celebrities in political discourse has also been a significant factor.
This all sets the stage for a well-known TV reality show host and outsized personality like Trump to enter the race and dominate it. The changes in society and upheavals made such a candidacy almost inevitable.
Where it will all end remains to be seen. It may mean the end of the Republican Party as presently constituted. It may mean another three or even four-candidate race this year.
One thing is for sure. In a country like the United States, presidential politics is the biggest show there is whenever the post is about to be vacated. Trump's dominance of the airwaves and internet will help him stay in the race, and will ensure that people all over the world pay close attention over the months until the election on Nov. 8.
After I began this post, I came across a terrific column in the National Post by Colby Cosh, which makes some of the same points I was hoping to emphasize, and adds many more. It's well worth a read.